U.S. Stock Market — Week Ahead: August 11-15, 2025
Published: August 10, 2025
TL;DR
This week brings critical inflation data and Fed speeches as markets hover near record highs amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Q2 earnings season winds down with several key reports that could influence sector rotation strategies.
Key Takeaways:- • CPI data Tuesday will guide Fed policy expectations
- • Technology earnings may signal AI spending sustainability trends
- • Consumer discretionary faces margin pressure amid tariff concerns
Market Snapshot
Markets closed the previous week with mixed signals as investors digested economic data and corporate earnings. The S&P 500 reached 6,389 points with a 0.78% gain, testing all-time highs while the 20-day moving average at 6,318 continues to provide technical support. Trading volumes remained elevated as institutional investors repositioned ahead of key economic releases.
Previous Week Performance:- S&P 500: +1.2%
- Dow Jones: +0.8%
- Nasdaq: +1.6%
Data as of August 8, 2025, 4:00 PM ET
Economic Calendar
| Date/Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 8/11 – 8:30 AM | Producer Price Index (MoM) | +0.2% | Medium |
| Tue 8/12 – 8:30 AM | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | 2.9% | High |
| Wed 8/13 – 8:30 AM | Retail Sales (MoM) | +0.4% | Medium |
| Thu 8/14 – 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims | 235K | Medium |
| Thu 8/14 – 2:00 PM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | N/A | High |
| Fri 8/15 – 10:00 AM | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 66.8 | Low |
Earnings Calendar
| Company (Ticker) | Report Day | Market Impact Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Home Depot (HD) | Tuesday | Consumer spending and housing market health indicator |
| Walmart (WMT) | Thursday | Retail sector bellwether for consumer resilience trends |
| Cisco Systems (CSCO) | Wednesday | Enterprise IT spending and infrastructure investment gauge |
| Applied Materials (AMAT) | Thursday | Semiconductor equipment demand and AI chip production outlook |
Three Stocks/ETFs to Watch
1. Home Depot (HD)
Tuesday’s earnings will reveal consumer discretionary strength amid housing market uncertainty and potential tariff impacts on building materials costs.
2. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY)
Multiple retail earnings this week could drive sector rotation as investors assess consumer spending resilience against inflation headwinds.
3. Applied Materials (AMAT)
Semiconductor equipment leader’s guidance will signal sustainability of AI infrastructure investment boom and chip manufacturing capacity expansion.
Bull & Bear Scenarios
Bull Case: CPI data shows continued disinflation progress, prompting Fed dovishness and corporate earnings exceed guidance across sectors. Bear Case: Inflation proves sticky above 3%, Fed maintains hawkish stance while retail earnings disappoint on margin compression concerns.Market Outlook
The week ahead presents a critical juncture for markets as investors weigh inflation trajectory against corporate earnings resilience. Fed policy expectations remain fluid with 90% probability of a September rate cut. Tuesday’s CPI reading will be pivotal in confirming whether the recent disinflation trend continues or if price pressures are proving more persistent than anticipated.
Earnings season is winding down but key reports from consumer-facing companies will provide insight into spending patterns and margin pressures. The technology sector faces particular scrutiny as investors question the sustainability of AI-driven capital expenditure cycles.
Technical levels remain supportive for equities, with the S&P 500’s 20-day moving average acting as a key support zone. However, geopolitical uncertainties and trade policy developments continue to create periodic volatility spikes that could challenge current market complacency.